Why higher fuel prices could reach your weekly food shop

What happened

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has published its latest official forecast, and according to the BBC, rising energy prices are the biggest risk to the economy in the near future. The BBC says the UK may have no involvement in the US-Iran war, but is still feeling the full force of the conflict on its economy. It was the OBR's first assessment of the UK economy since the Middle East conflict started.

The OBR sharply cut its growth prediction for next year from 1.6% to 1%. It also expects prices to rise at a faster pace as higher energy bills filter through supply chains and on to consumers, especially in 2027. The OBR now thinks inflation will stay higher for longer than previously forecast, peaking at 3.8% in 2027.

Inflation is expected to average 3.4% next year, before falling to the Bank of England's 2% target towards the end of the decade. Chancellor John Healey warned the nation faces "real challenges ahead" and announced policies he said would offer "breathing space" for households in the coming months. Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the cost-of-living measures were "small beer given the surge in inflation we expect over the winter".

What it means for your dinners

The BBC does not put a figure on food prices, so we won't either. What it does is explain the route from oil to the supermarket. Elevated oil prices over time can lead to prices edging upwards across a host of goods, such as food, as companies pass on the higher expenses they face. Goods are typically transported by lorries and vans, so high fuel prices can have far-reaching consequences.

Drivers are already feeling it. The BBC reports petrol at almost £1.73 per litre on average, with diesel near £1.99.

According to the BBC, those on lower incomes are set to be hit harder, because energy costs eat up a bigger share of their monthly budget. The OBR forecasts a dip in the growth of living standards next year, and real household disposable income is forecast to grow from 2027, but not by as much as previously thought. The OBR's David Miles said "It's a pretty grim picture".

For a household planning the week's dinners, our reading is that there is no need to panic, but the shopping budget may feel pressure at a time of rising prices, so food that ends up in the bin matters a little more than it used to.

Where Forkcast fits

Forkcast plans the week around shared ingredients, so less goes in the bin, and it gives you one shopping list.

We are not promising a particular saving, and nothing in the OBR forecast tells us what any one family's shop will cost. But when prices are expected to rise, making use of what you buy is a habit that does not depend on the Budget, the Bank or the price of oil.

The short version

The OBR expects higher energy costs to push up inflation, and the BBC explains that dearer fuel can feed into the price of food. Plan the week, shop from one list, and make the ingredients do more than one job.